PAHALGAM ATTACK-WHAT NEXT ?

Global politics began after the cremations and condolences were over. A response to such provocation is mandatory. What can that be?

India: The public expects a muscular retaliation against Pakistan. Mr. Modi has to decide the manner this will take. A limited military blow, or an all-out assault? Careful, calibrated diplomacy? He has to avoid any alienation of Kashmiris in the country and restore The status quo ante. A festering wound will drain resources, and this is what Pakistan wants.

Pakistan: The establishment (read the generals in Rawalpindi) needs a small war. The public there has understood that the army has profited immensely in its years in power. What better way for the generals to regain support and trust than to project the military as the savior?

USA: Trump needs Sunni Pakistan if he is going to take on Shia Iran.

Remember, there is a large border between these two nations. And Terrorism is still nurtured against the US in the Taliban heartland north of the Durand Line. The army in charge in Pakistan (rather than a civilian, democratically elected government) is a valuable asset.

Russia: I doubt if it can help much, as it’s too busy fighting its own wars. It’s a pale shadow of the former Soviet Union.

China: Has too much invested in Pakistan and will not be a passive bystander to its destruction.

These are my views. I must add that the consequences of war are

borne by the innocents.

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